Blog

Guides and insights on prediction markets and finding the edge

September 29, 2026·8 min read

9 FIFA World Cup Team Roster Limits Worth Knowing in 2026

World Cup 2026 roster rules for traders: provisional vs final vs matchday lists, 24h outfield cutoff, and goalkeeper replacement exceptions.

September 28, 2026·9 min read

How to Hedge Election Risk With Presidential Prediction Markets: 7 Steps

This step-by-step guide shows how to hedge presidential election risk with prediction-market contracts — decoding “president market” and the $1/$0 payoff...

September 27, 2026·Updated October 12, 2026·9 min read

Senate Primary Results: Election-Night Returns vs Certified Results for Trading

For senate primary results markets, see how election-night returns differ from certified totals and which contract clauses control settlement timing.

September 26, 2026·Updated October 11, 2026·9 min read

11 Accuracy Metrics for Senate Forecasts to Evaluate in 2026

Score 2026 senate forecasts with Brier/log loss, RPS, CRPS, interval/coverage checks, plus a snapshot protocol and calibration diagnostics.

September 25, 2026·Updated October 10, 2026·12 min read

World Cup Winner Markets vs Elo Ratings: Which Forecasts Better?

Compare winner-market odds vs Elo simulations for World Cup champions using log loss/Brier, plus a checklist for liquidity and bias.

September 24, 2026·Updated October 9, 2026·9 min read

United States Presidential Primary: Nominee vs State Markets to Hedge

Choose nominee vs state primary contracts to hedge U.S. nomination risk, with settlement triggers, basis-risk examples, and a decision matrix.

September 23, 2026·Updated October 8, 2026·7 min read

What Is a U.S. Senate Forecast, and How Does It Work?

An explainer that puts “U.S. Senate forecast” pages in plain English — the three core numbers they publish, race ratings vs win probabilities, where the...

September 22, 2026·Updated October 7, 2026·14 min read

FIFA World Cup who will win: 11 market metrics for 2026

This case study puts World Cup winner markets on equal footing in 2026 — contract normalization (same question/window/settlement), bid/ask-to-cost...

September 20, 2026·Updated October 5, 2026·13 min read

CoinRithm Prediction Markets vs MarketsPrediction for Event Discovery

A head-to-head comparison that settles whether CoinRithm or MarketsPrediction is the better fit for event discovery — a four-step...

September 19, 2026·Updated October 4, 2026·7 min read

7 U.S. Presidential Primary Odds Mistakes That Mislead Traders

This troubleshooter pinpoints the seven mistakes that make U.S. presidential primary/nominee “odds” look tradable when they aren’t — settlement trigger vs...

September 18, 2026·Updated October 3, 2026·10 min read

Omnipred vs. MarketsPrediction for Polymarket and Kalshi Odds

OmniPred vs. MarketsPrediction for Polymarket and Kalshi odds: when to use fast arb alerts vs trade validation (matching, bid/ask, spreads, fees, freshness).

September 17, 2026·Updated October 2, 2026·10 min read

What Is the South Carolina Senate Primary?

What “South Carolina Senate primary” means in 2026: U.S. vs state Senate, June 9/23 primaries, Aug 11/25 GOP replacement, and who can vote.

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