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Who will win US President Elections 2028

36 outcomes
Total Volume
$468.66M
$8.26M / $460.40M
24h Volume
$3.65M
$65.4K / $3.59M
Liquidity
$351.00M
$320.80M / $30.20M
Turnover (24h)
0.06x
0.00x / 0.12x
Prediction Market Dominance Index
K+50K+40K+30K+20K+10EvenP+10P+20P+30P+40P+50
Kalshi

+26

Kalshi Lean
INDEX COMPONENTS
Kalshi
Polymarket
24h Volume (55%)
2%
98%
Liquidity (25%)
91%
9%
Turnover (20%)
0%
100%
Trends
Volume
→ +0.0%
Liquidity
→ +0.0%
Dominance
→ +0.0
Highlights
Both23
K only0
PM only13
Avg Spread1.4%
Most Active (24h)Tucker Carlson wins the 2028 US Presidential Election$681.9K
Deepest MarketGreg Abbott wins the 2028 US Presidential Election$17.82M
Best Spread10.0¢
JD Vance wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
Buy on PM @ 18.1¢ → Sell on K @ 28.0¢
Markets Agree (<2% spread)19/23
Top Spreads
JD Vance wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
K↑10.0%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
K↑2.3%
Pete Buttigieg wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
K↑2.2%
AI Market Analysis6d ago
Key InsightThe clean trade is the Vance cross-platform spread—sell/buy the 10pp gap where you can hedge, as it's the only clear mispricing signal.
SummaryMarket is fragmented with GOP-leaning top odds: JD Vance 23.0% and Marco Rubio 10.8%, then Newsom 18.1% and AOC 5.9%.
Price MovementStable (no 24h/1w history provided to flag moves).
VolumePolymarket drives most flow; biggest 24h prints are Tucker Carlson $681.9k and JB Pritzker $484.1k (celebrity/longshot-heavy interest).
PlatformsMajor dislocation: JD Vance 28% (Kalshi) vs 18.1% (Polymarket), a 10.0pp spread (arb-worthy); others mostly <3pp.
Outcome
K / PM / Spread
Spread
K Vol 24h
PM Vol 24h
LeBron James wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
-$0.0045-
--$282.6K
Tim Walz wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
$0.0100$0.0065$0.0035
0.4%-$79.3K
Greg Abbott wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
$0.0100$0.0095$0.0005
0.1%$1.0K$38.3K
Vivek Ramaswamy wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
$0.0100$0.0065$0.0035
0.4%$10.4K$45.1K
Kim Kardashian wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
-$0.0055-
--$191.7K
Stephen A. Smith wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
$0.0100$0.0065$0.0035
0.4%$50$59.3K
Tulsi Gabbard wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
$0.0100$0.0075$0.0025
0.3%$1.0K$17.3K
Elon Musk wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
-$0.0095-
--$53.1K
Nikki Haley wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
$0.0100$0.0085$0.0015
0.1%$1.5K$25.0K
Glenn Youngkin wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
$0.0200$0.0065$0.0135
1.4%$50$35.1K
Zohran Mamdani wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
-$0.0065-
--$47.8K
Andy Beshear wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
$0.0300$0.0125$0.0175
1.7%$1.6K$130.7K
Michelle Obama wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
-$0.0105-
--$31.6K
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
$0.0700$0.0470$0.0230
2.3%$1.4K$25.4K
JD Vance wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
$0.2800$0.1805$0.0995
10.0%$4.3K$65.4K
JB Pritzker wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
$0.0300$0.0180$0.0120
1.2%$3.4K$480.7K
Tucker Carlson wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
-$0.0355-
--$681.9K
Donald Trump Jr. wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
$0.0200$0.0085$0.0115
1.1%-$28.7K
Gretchen Whitmer wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
$0.0200$0.0095$0.0105
1.1%$432$93.5K
Gavin Newsom wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
$0.1900$0.1725$0.0175
1.8%$6.6K$30.0K
Jamie Dimon wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
$0.0100$0.0105$0.0005
0.1%$467$15.1K
Donald Trump wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
$0.0400$0.0215$0.0185
1.9%$12.7K$72.0K
Kamala Harris wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
$0.0300$0.0325$0.0025
0.3%$50$28.9K
Ron DeSantis wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
$0.0200$0.0155$0.0045
0.5%$4.9K$60.0K
Marco Rubio wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
$0.1100$0.1070$0.0030
0.3%$5.8K$82.7K
Wes Moore wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
$0.0300$0.0085$0.0215
2.1%$500$24.9K
Josh Shapiro wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
$0.0400$0.0240$0.0160
1.6%$5.5K$38.0K
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
-$0.0145-
--$92.7K
Ro Khanna wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
-$0.0085-
--$113.5K
Eric Trump wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
-$0.0055-
--$69.5K
Ivanka Trump wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
-$0.0115-
--$24.5K
Pete Buttigieg wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
$0.0400$0.0185$0.0215
2.2%$3.8K$80.8K
James Talarico wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
-$0.0145-
--$226.3K
Thomas Massie wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
-$0.0085-
--$23.3K
Jon Ossoff wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
$0.0200$0.0345$0.0145
1.5%-$57.9K
Pete Hegseth wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
-$0.0055-
--$133.7K
Sort by:
JD Vance wins the 2028 US Presidential Election+10.0¢
K28¢
PM18¢
K 24h$4.3K
PM 24h$65.4K
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the 2028 US Presidential Election+2.3¢
K7¢
PM5¢
K 24h$1.4K
PM 24h$25.4K
Pete Buttigieg wins the 2028 US Presidential Election+2.2¢
K4¢
PM2¢
K 24h$3.8K
PM 24h$80.8K
Wes Moore wins the 2028 US Presidential Election+2.1¢
K3¢
PM1¢
K 24h$500
PM 24h$24.9K
Donald Trump wins the 2028 US Presidential Election+1.9¢
K4¢
PM2¢
K 24h$12.7K
PM 24h$72.0K
Gavin Newsom wins the 2028 US Presidential Election+1.8¢
K19¢
PM17¢
K 24h$6.6K
PM 24h$30.0K
Andy Beshear wins the 2028 US Presidential Election+1.7¢
K3¢
PM1¢
K 24h$1.6K
PM 24h$130.7K
Josh Shapiro wins the 2028 US Presidential Election+1.6¢
K4¢
PM2¢
K 24h$5.5K
PM 24h$38.0K
Jon Ossoff wins the 2028 US Presidential Election+1.5¢
K2¢
PM3¢
K 24h-
PM 24h$57.9K
Glenn Youngkin wins the 2028 US Presidential Election+1.4¢
K2¢
PM1¢
K 24h$50
PM 24h$35.1K
JB Pritzker wins the 2028 US Presidential Election+1.2¢
K3¢
PM2¢
K 24h$3.4K
PM 24h$480.7K
Donald Trump Jr. wins the 2028 US Presidential Election+1.1¢
K2¢
PM1¢
K 24h-
PM 24h$28.7K
Gretchen Whitmer wins the 2028 US Presidential Election+1.1¢
K2¢
PM1¢
K 24h$432
PM 24h$93.5K
Ron DeSantis wins the 2028 US Presidential Election+0.5¢
K2¢
PM2¢
K 24h$4.9K
PM 24h$60.0K
Tim Walz wins the 2028 US Presidential Election+0.4¢
K1¢
PM1¢
K 24h-
PM 24h$79.3K
Vivek Ramaswamy wins the 2028 US Presidential Election+0.4¢
K1¢
PM1¢
K 24h$10.4K
PM 24h$45.1K
Stephen A. Smith wins the 2028 US Presidential Election+0.4¢
K1¢
PM1¢
K 24h$50
PM 24h$59.3K
Marco Rubio wins the 2028 US Presidential Election+0.3¢
K11¢
PM11¢
K 24h$5.8K
PM 24h$82.7K
Kamala Harris wins the 2028 US Presidential Election+0.3¢
K3¢
PM3¢
K 24h$50
PM 24h$28.9K
Tulsi Gabbard wins the 2028 US Presidential Election+0.3¢
K1¢
PM1¢
K 24h$1.0K
PM 24h$17.3K
Nikki Haley wins the 2028 US Presidential Election+0.1¢
K1¢
PM1¢
K 24h$1.5K
PM 24h$25.0K
Greg Abbott wins the 2028 US Presidential Election+0.1¢
K1¢
PM1¢
K 24h$1.0K
PM 24h$38.3K
Jamie Dimon wins the 2028 US Presidential Election+0.1¢
K1¢
PM1¢
K 24h$467
PM 24h$15.1K
LeBron James wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
K-
PM0¢
K 24h-
PM 24h$282.6K
Kim Kardashian wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
K-
PM1¢
K 24h-
PM 24h$191.7K
Elon Musk wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
K-
PM1¢
K 24h-
PM 24h$53.1K
Zohran Mamdani wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
K-
PM1¢
K 24h-
PM 24h$47.8K
Michelle Obama wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
K-
PM1¢
K 24h-
PM 24h$31.6K
Tucker Carlson wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
K-
PM4¢
K 24h-
PM 24h$681.9K
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
K-
PM1¢
K 24h-
PM 24h$92.7K
Ro Khanna wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
K-
PM1¢
K 24h-
PM 24h$113.5K
Eric Trump wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
K-
PM1¢
K 24h-
PM 24h$69.5K
Ivanka Trump wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
K-
PM1¢
K 24h-
PM 24h$24.5K
James Talarico wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
K-
PM1¢
K 24h-
PM 24h$226.3K
Thomas Massie wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
K-
PM1¢
K 24h-
PM 24h$23.3K
Pete Hegseth wins the 2028 US Presidential Election
K-
PM1¢
K 24h-
PM 24h$133.7K