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US and Iran both claim control of Strait of Hormuz amid attacks on vessels
Oil flows recover
Kpler data cited in recent reporting estimated oil flows at 11.6 million barrels per day during the week to October 13, compared with a pre-war level of 17.1 million barrels per day.[11]
Conflicting indicators
US officials cited much higher facilitated-transit figures, but those claims could not be independently verified. UKMTO’s lower traffic count provides a more cautious picture of ordinary commercial movement.[11][12]
Partial reopening
The distinction matters because a limited number of tankers can carry significant volumes without restoring normal traffic across all ship categories. Container ships, bulk carriers, and other operators may continue avoiding the route even when oil shipments resume.
Month-based forecast
Accordingly, the available evidence supports a conditional rather than calendar-based forecast. December is the market’s leading month-based possibility, but the dominant expectation remains that normal traffic will not return in 2026.[3][10]