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Prediction Markets Keep Betting The Strait of Hormuz Will ...
Expectations worsen
The latest market commentary says traders see only about a 44% chance that traffic returns to normal before December 1. That is materially weaker than a forecast centered on an autumn recovery.
Security setback
The shift followed renewed security concerns, including attacks and vessel incidents that undermined confidence in a stable reopening. Such events can cause operators to delay voyages even when the route technically remains passable.
Likely timeline
Prediction-market prices are not official forecasts, but they provide a real-time measure of expectations about the traffic threshold. Their movement suggests that a sustained recovery is now viewed as more likely in 2027 than during the remaining months of 2026.
Bottom line
The evidence does not support naming a definitive month. If forced to choose among 2026 outcomes, December remains the leading candidate, while the broader and more likely answer is that normal traffic will not return this year.