Best Platforms
Live Odds
Hormuz ship traffic climbs after war deal, but recovery remains uncertain
Brief rebound
Shipping data show a sharp but uneven recovery. Traffic reached 25 commercial vessels on one recent day and at least 35 commodity carriers on another, the strongest levels since the war began, but those figures remained well below normal peacetime activity.[14][17]
Recovery reversed
The improvement has not held consistently. After attacks on commercial vessels, traffic fell to seven commodity vessels in one day—the lowest level in more than two months—and crude flows were reported at roughly 74% below their pre-war level.[15][18]
Why confidence lags
UK maritime data put combined inbound and outbound transits about 70% below pre-conflict levels, while reports say attacks and uncertainty continue to deter ship operators.[12][19] This makes a sustained normalization different from an isolated daily spike.
Likely timing
The best current answer is therefore no specific month, with no return to normal during 2026 the leading expectation in prediction markets. December is the nearest plausible 2026 outcome, but a durable recovery would require sustained security, clearer rules for passage, and lower war-risk concerns.[3][10][14]