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Potential 2028 frontrunners rise to top of new primary poll
Harris Leads Democrats
A Harvard/HarrisX poll conducted October 24–26 showed Harris leading prospective Democratic contenders with 34%, followed by Newsom at 20%, Ocasio-Cortez at 11%, and Buttigieg at 10%.[3]
Vance Leads GOP
Vance led the hypothetical Republican primary with 40%. Trump Jr. and Rubio each received 21%, suggesting that Vance has an early advantage but that the Republican field is not settled.[3]
Unsettled Primaries
The results point to clearer Republican consolidation around one early favorite than Democratic consolidation around Harris. Other polling has also shown Harris ahead of a fragmented Democratic field, while a substantial share of Democrats has not selected a candidate.[4][5]
Limits of Polling
These primary numbers cannot establish which party will win the general election. Candidate quality, turnout, the national political environment, and the eventual nominees’ positions will matter more than early name recognition.