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2028 election odds: Democrats win the presidential election
Early Market Edge
Prediction markets currently favor a Democratic victory in 2028, with one combined estimate at 63%.[1] Other recent market reporting has shown a Democratic advantage, although estimates have varied from a modest edge to roughly two-thirds, underscoring how quickly these prices can move.[2]
Democratic Field
The prospective Democratic field is led in early polling by Kamala Harris, while Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Pete Buttigieg and others remain in contention. Harris received 34% support in a recent Harvard/HarrisX survey, compared with 20% for Newsom.[3]
Republican Field
Vice President JD Vance is the clearest early Republican favorite. The same survey gave Vance 40% among Republicans, with Donald Trump Jr. and Secretary of State Marco Rubio tied at 21%; a separate New York Times/Siena poll also put Vance ahead of Rubio.[3][4]
What Comes Next
The apparent Democratic party advantage should not be treated as a prediction of the eventual result. No major candidates have formally launched campaigns, Democratic voters remain divided, and the 2026 midterms, economic conditions, presidential approval, and international events could substantially reshape the race before voting begins.