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Live Odds
2028 Election Odds by Candidate: Nomination and Presidency
Candidate Odds
A recent market snapshot listed Vance at 18.4% to win the presidency, followed by Ocasio-Cortez at 12.4% and Newsom at 12.3%.[6] No candidate came close to a majority, reflecting the race’s early stage.
Nomination Contests
The same market placed Vance ahead in the Republican nomination contest, while Ocasio-Cortez led the Democratic nomination market. These prices are speculative and can be affected by trading volume, media attention, and changing assumptions about who will run.[6]
Why Signals Differ
The contrast between Vance leading the individual board and Democrats leading the party board is not necessarily contradictory. A fragmented Democratic field can reduce each Democrat’s individual probability while collectively giving the party a strong chance.
Current Bottom Line
The most defensible current conclusion is that Democrats have an early party-level edge, while Vance is the strongest single prospective candidate. Both assessments remain vulnerable to major political developments over the next two years.