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New EIA report warns Strait of Hormuz disruptions could keep pressure on global oil markets
Earlier forecast
The U.S. Energy Information Administration previously projected that shipping conditions would begin improving in September after severe restrictions through August. That forecast concerned the start of recovery, not an immediate return to normal volumes.[4]
Recovery falls short
Subsequent coverage shows that increased movement has not yet produced normal conditions. Traffic remains vulnerable to renewed conflict, while insurers and shipowners continue to price in substantial risk.[3]
Reopening versus normal
The difference between reopening and normalization is central. Ships may begin transiting again before operators are willing to restore regular schedules, commit large tanker fleets or accept ordinary insurance terms.
Revised expectation
The latest evidence therefore points away from a dependable 2026 month. A gradual recovery could continue through the end of the year, but broad normalization may not occur until 2027.[3][4][7]