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Hormuz ship traffic highest since war began: Monitor
Current traffic
Traffic remains well below normal levels despite signs of increased movement. Recent monitoring found the highest traffic since the war began, but analysts cautioned that the recovery is fragile and not equivalent to restored commercial operations.[1]
What must change
The main barriers are security and commercial rather than purely physical. Ships need confidence that the route is safe, insurance costs must fall, and any mines or other navigational hazards must be cleared before major operators return at scale.[1]
Market outlook
Prediction markets currently assign only about an 18% chance of normal traffic by December 31, using a seven-day average threshold of at least 60 ship transits per day. That makes December a possible but unlikely turning point, with no single month emerging as a clear consensus forecast.[5]
Likely timeline
Shipping-industry expectations are becoming more cautious. Mitsui OSK has said a return to normal operations by the end of 2026 is difficult to see, while earlier assumptions had pointed to normalization around January 2027.[7]