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Daily briefs: Strait of Hormuz traffic remains effectively closed
Latest measurement
The tracker’s latest figure shows a severe shortfall in daily crossings relative to the baseline. Such a low count is consistent with restricted, selective, or highly cautious transit rather than ordinary commercial operations.
Why it matters
The data provide a practical test of claims that the strait is reopening. Political statements may come first, but sustained AIS-visible crossings are needed to demonstrate that the route has genuinely returned to normal.
Month-by-month view
With traffic still at a small fraction of normal near the end of October, an October return is no longer credible. A November recovery would require a sharp and sustained increase almost immediately.
Key indicators
The timing therefore depends on whether the reported agreement produces durable security and whether shipping firms resume regular use. Until daily counts approach historical norms, normalization should be treated as incomplete.