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Prediction markets now favor no return to normal Hormuz traffic in 2026
Current traffic
As of late October, the strait remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic. One tracking summary puts average tanker movements in the week through October 25 at only 0.9 per day, about 98% below the comparison-period average.[4] Another report says seven commodity vessels crossed on one recent day, the lowest level in roughly two months.[2]
Why recovery is slow
The main obstacle is not simply the physical ability to sail through the waterway. Operators also need confidence about military risk, sanctions, insurance, escorts and the durability of any political agreement. A proposed seven-day reopening plan reportedly depends on the United States lifting a blockade, easing oil sanctions and releasing frozen Iranian funds, but the proposal has not produced an agreed reopening date.[3][8]
Best current estimate
The strongest current market signal is the outcome “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026,” priced at about 89%, with December a distant second at roughly 7% to 8%.[1][6] That is a market expectation, not a confirmed forecast, but it reflects the repeated setbacks and weak observed traffic.
What comes next
If conditions improve, traffic could recover in stages rather than return immediately to normal. Analysts cited in recent coverage have suggested partial improvement before full normalization, with some expectations extending well into 2027.[5] The practical answer is therefore: no month can be stated with confidence, and 2027 currently appears more likely than any remaining month of 2026.