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A resumed Iran war after midterms would put fragile gains in Hormuz to the test
Traffic is recovering
At least 30 ships per day reportedly crossed the strait during October, a major improvement from the near-cessation of traffic earlier in the conflict. The rebound has helped restore an important route for Gulf allies and global energy markets.
Fragile progress
The improvement remains vulnerable because the underlying political and security dispute has not been fully resolved. Any renewed confrontation could again deter shipowners and sharply reduce crossings.
Normal means more
Higher traffic counts do not necessarily mean normal commercial conditions have returned. Operators may still face elevated insurance costs, cautious routing decisions, and delays caused by accumulated backlogs.
Near-term test
Sustained improvement will depend on the durability of the agreement and the absence of renewed military threats. The coming weeks should show whether October’s increase represents normalization or only an initial reopening surge.