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Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
Latest pricing
The market tracking the question has accumulated substantial trading activity and offers multiple possible deadlines. The December 31 outcome currently has the highest Yes price among the listed dates.
What traders think
Despite being the leading outcome, the year-end contract remains priced at a very low level. This indicates that traders see an official confirmation as possible but highly improbable.
How it resolves
The market concerns a formal government confirmation, not simply public speculation or evidence that remains unexplained. That narrow resolution rule is why new UAP discussion may not materially affect the contract.
Remaining timeline
Unless a qualifying official statement is issued before the relevant cutoff, the market will resolve against confirmation. Current coverage provides no evidence that such a statement has occurred.