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Live Odds
Very early presidential polling: Vance and Rubio lead GOP, Buttigieg has narrow Dem lead
Democratic polling
The Emerson College polling cited in the roundup places Buttigieg at the front of the Democratic field, followed by Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez. Buttigieg has not clearly committed to a 2028 campaign, so his lead may not translate into a candidacy.
Tight GOP contest
The Republican contest appears tighter than earlier measurements. Vance leads Rubio by a small margin in the cited survey, while other potential candidates remain well behind and a notable share of respondents are undecided.
Shifting support
The movement toward Rubio suggests that Republican support is not locked in, even with Vance’s institutional advantages as vice president. Trump’s refusal to choose between them adds to the uncertainty.
Why it is early
These are early preference surveys rather than general-election matchups. They identify potential strengths and weaknesses, but cannot yet determine which party or candidate will win in November 2028.