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Strait of Hormuz: is it open? Status, ship traffic and oil
Satellite data
The latest PortWatch figures show tanker traffic at roughly 99% below the comparison-period average. The data indicate that ordinary, freely routed commercial traffic has not returned.[11]
Data limitations
The low count does not mean that every vessel movement has stopped. Some ships reportedly operate under naval escort, in shuttle arrangements or with transponders turned off, making independent counts incomplete.[11]
What to watch
The gap between visible traffic and normal traffic remains too large to support a near-term normalization date. A sustained improvement would need to appear across multiple tracking systems and persist over several weeks.[11][16]
Timing outlook
On the evidence available, December is an outside possibility rather than a supported timetable. If attacks and political uncertainty continue, the more defensible expectation is that normal traffic may not return until 2027 or later.[2][5]