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Hormuz transits at lowest in over two months after attacks, data shows
Traffic remains weak
Reuters reported that only seven commodity vessels crossed the strait on October 7, the lowest daily figure since July 23. Traffic rose to 10 vessels the next day but remained well below the more than 20 daily crossings recorded earlier that week.[20]
Attacks reversed gains
The decline followed a series of tanker attacks, showing that recent increases in vessel movements were fragile. Kpler estimated crude flows at 10.1 million barrels per day, still 74% below the pre-war level.[20]
Conditions for recovery
A durable recovery depends on more than a formal reopening. Shipowners and insurers would need sustained security, credible mine-clearance assurances and lower war-risk premiums before routine commercial traffic could resume at scale.[3][20]
Best current estimate
No authoritative report establishes a specific normalization month. A prediction-market snapshot from October 17 placed the probability of no return to normal traffic during 2026 at 89%, with December the leading in-year alternative at only 8%; this is market sentiment, not an official forecast.[2]