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Qatar and Kuwait Restore 70% of Pre-War Oil Exports Through Hormuz
Partial recovery
Qatar and Kuwait are using alternative logistics, including shuttle operations and ship-to-ship transfers, to restore much of their previous export volume. These methods can sustain supplies while limiting exposure to the most dangerous parts of the route.[3]
Not yet normal
The distinction between restored exports and normal traffic is crucial. A normal market would require predictable passage for a broad range of vessels, not only selected energy cargoes moving through special arrangements.
Security remains
Ongoing attacks continue to raise the operational and financial risks of using the waterway. Those risks can keep shipowners away even when governments announce access or exporters find temporary workarounds.
End-year odds
The reported 34% probability of normalization by December 31 indicates that traders see a meaningful but minority chance of year-end improvement. The more likely scenario remains delayed, gradual recovery.[3]