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Live Odds
New 2028 poll shows wide-open Democratic primary, clear GOP favorite
Early Leaders
The poll gives Vance 33% among potential Republican primary voters, ahead of Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 23% or 24%. Harris leads Democrats with 12%, followed by Gavin Newsom at 9%, Pete Buttigieg at 7%, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 6%.[11][12]
Unsettled Race
The Republican field currently looks more consolidated around Vance, but his lead is only an early preference rather than a nomination forecast. On the Democratic side, the large undecided share leaves substantial room for candidates who have not yet entered or fully organized.[11][13]
What Comes Next
The survey was conducted October 12–19 among 3,494 voters, with a reported margin of error of 1.9 percentage points. Neither party has a declared nominee, and the 2026 midterms could significantly reshape the field.[11]