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Is the Strait of Hormuz Open? Daily Ship Traffic and Odds
Market consensus
One tracker put the probability of no normal traffic in 2026 at about 83%, with December near 7% and November below 5%. A separate market page showed a similar no-return probability of roughly 82%.[1][2]
What normal means
The market uses a specific operational threshold based on IMF PortWatch’s seven-day moving average of Strait transit calls. That definition is narrower and more measurable than simply asking whether some oil or gas is moving through the region.[3]
Limits of the signal
Because market prices react to attacks, diplomatic developments, and shipping data, they can change rapidly. They should be read as a probability snapshot rather than confirmation that normalization will or will not occur in a particular month.[1][4]
Bottom line
Taken together with the EIA outlook and the latest vessel counts, the best current answer is: probably not before December, with early 2027 the more plausible period for full normalization if security conditions improve.[11][12][16]