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EIA increases global oil production forecast after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
Official assumption
The EIA’s forecast assumes the conflict does not continue beyond April and that vessel movements through Hormuz gradually recover. Under that assumption, production shut-ins decline in May and move close to pre-conflict levels late in 2026.[11]
Expected recovery
A separate EIA update says shipping traffic increased after a June 18 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding and projects global crude production and trade flows to rebound near pre-conflict levels by year-end.[12]
Key limitation
The forecast concerns energy flows and production more directly than the number of ordinary commercial ship transits. Oil can move through rerouting, transfers, and selective voyages even while the waterway remains unsafe or commercially abnormal for much of the shipping industry.[12][15]
What comes next
Accordingly, December 2026 is the most optimistic evidence-based window for substantial recovery, while a genuinely normal shipping pattern could slip into early 2027 if attacks or political tensions persist.[12][14]