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Market Prediction·October 18, 2026
Hormuz shipping traffic falls to lowest in more than two months
Uneven progress
Recent tracking indicates that the waterway remains usable for some vessels but far below normal levels. Earlier rebounds have not yet developed into a stable recovery.
Confidence matters
A political agreement may be necessary but not sufficient. Shipowners and insurers will likely wait for an extended period without attacks or other disruptions before restoring regular schedules.
Bottom line
The most defensible conclusion is that no month can currently be stated with confidence. If current market pricing is a guide, a full return during 2026 is considered unlikely, while 2027 appears more plausible.