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Polymarket·October 18, 2026
Hormuz Predictions & Real-Time Odds
The benchmark
The market defines normal traffic using an IMF PortWatch seven-day moving average of at least 60 ship arrivals. That threshold has not yet been reached, and the market assigns the largest probability to no qualifying month in 2026.
Current odds
As of October 18, the market places about 89% on no return to normal traffic in 2026, with December at about 8% and November at about 3%. These figures reflect trader expectations rather than an official forecast.
Likely timing
The pricing implies that December is the earliest plausible month still receiving meaningful support, but the dominant expectation is that normalization will extend into 2027 or later.