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Argus Media·October 23, 2026
Hormuz restart consensus for LNG market slips into 2Q27
Market forecast
The market’s central estimate has shifted to early April 2027 for the restoration of prewar LNG flows through the strait. This is later than the rolling assumption previously used by many firms.
Why forecasts changed
The change reflects concern that reopening will produce a slow ramp-up rather than an immediate return to historic volumes. Some participants expect restricted or covert shipping patterns to continue for an extended period.
Uncertain timeline
A broad forecast range—from late December 2026 to September 2027—shows that traders do not share a stable view of the security or diplomatic outlook.
Market impact
LNG prices, cargo planning and regional supply balances will remain sensitive to each new signal about vessel safety, sanctions and the implementation of the agreement.