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Resolution Source

A resolution source is the designated external authority or data feed whose published output determines the official outcome of a prediction market contract.

Updated June 24, 2026Resolution & Settlement
TL;DR
The resolution source is the referee that the contract points to. If that source says YES, the market resolves YES, regardless of what any other source reports.

Key Points

✓Each contract specifies its resolution source in the [[resolution-criteria]] before trading begins.
✓Kalshi uses government agencies such as BLS and NOAA, plus major sports data providers, depending on market type.
✓Polymarket markets specify a resolution source in natural language within the market description.
✓A single authoritative source is preferred to prevent conflicting data from different outlets.
✓If the designated source fails to publish data, the market may be delayed or declared [[invalid-market]].

Common Resolution Sources by Market Type

Prediction market platforms select sources based on the event category. For economic markets on Kalshi, sources include the Bureau of Labor Statistics for inflation data and the Federal Reserve for interest rate decisions. Crypto markets use CF Benchmarks Real-Time Indices. Sports markets reference official league records, AP, or ESPN. On Polymarket, the resolution source is described in plain English within each market, for example "this market resolves YES if Reuters or AP reports that X occurred." The Oracle then verifies whether that source meets the stated condition. Traders should read the source specification carefully, because two markets covering the same underlying event can resolve differently if they cite different sources.

Source Reliability and Market Risk

Choosing a reliable resolution source is critical to Market Resolution integrity. Risks include source unavailability, delayed publication, methodology changes, or conflicting reports from different outlets. Platforms mitigate this by designating a primary source and one or two fallbacks in the contract terms. When a source publishes a preliminary figure later revised, the contract typically specifies whether it resolves on the first release or a final revision. Traders who carefully study the resolution source gain an informational edge because they can anticipate edge cases such as data delays or revisions that might affect Settlement timing. This source-reading discipline is a core part of understanding Resolution Criteria on any platform.

Related Terms

Resolution Criteria
Resolution criteria are the precise rules written into a prediction market contract that define exactly what outcome must occur, what source will confirm it, and how edge cases will be handled.
Market Resolution
Market resolution is the process by which a prediction market determines its official outcome after the underlying event concludes, triggering the final settlement of all open positions.
Oracle
An oracle is a system that brings verified real-world data on-chain so that smart contracts can determine outcomes and execute settlements without relying on a single trusted party.
Invalid Market
An invalid market is a prediction market that cannot be resolved to a clear YES or NO outcome because the underlying event was cancelled, postponed indefinitely, or the result is genuinely ambiguous under the stated resolution criteria.
Kalshi
Kalshi is a US-based prediction market exchange regulated by the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market, allowing traders to buy and sell event contracts on real-world outcomes. It was the first exchange to receive CFTC approval specifically for event contracts, launching its first markets in 2021.

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