Resolution Criteria

Robust resolution criteria answer three questions: what event defines YES, what Resolution Source will confirm it, and what happens in ambiguous scenarios. For example, a market asking whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates at a specific meeting would specify: YES resolves if the FOMC announces a rate increase of any amount at that meeting; NO resolves if rates are held or cut; the source is the official FOMC statement published on the Federal Reserve website; if the meeting is postponed past Market Expiry, the market resolves as Invalid Market. Each of these clauses removes a potential ambiguity that could otherwise trigger a Dispute Resolution proceeding. The more precisely the criteria define edge cases, the smoother Market Resolution will be.

Differences in resolution criteria between platforms covering the same event can produce entirely different outcomes. A market asking whether a candidate will win an election could differ between platforms based on whether it resolves on the night of the vote, on official certification, or on Electoral College confirmation. Traders who read criteria carefully can identify Mispricing when the market is being priced against the wrong probability. Resolution criteria also determine how a contract handles a tie, a postponement, or a technicality. Understanding criteria is particularly important when the Contract Price is near 50 cents, since that level often reflects genuine uncertainty about whether the criteria will be met, rather than uncertainty about the underlying event itself.