Market Resolution

After a Market Expiry date passes, the platform verifies the real-world event outcome against the Resolution Criteria written into the contract. On Kalshi, the markets team monitors designated Resolution Source agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics, NOAA, or major sports leagues, and posts outcomes by 11:59 pm ET on the day they are determined. On Polymarket, anyone can trigger resolution by submitting a bonded proposal to the Oracle, which then enters a challenge window before Settlement is finalized. The key principle is that resolution must be objective: the platform follows its stated rules regardless of market sentiment or trader pressure.

Most binary markets resolve to a clear YES or NO, after which each winning share redeems for $1 and each losing share redeems for $0. However, some markets encounter ambiguous situations: an event may be postponed, cancelled, or fall outside the exact wording of the contract. In these cases, platforms may declare an Invalid Market, returning funds to all traders at a neutral price such as $0.50 per share. Kalshi may also invoke its Outcome Review Committee when resolution is disputed internally. Accurate Resolution Criteria in the contract terms are the primary safeguard against these edge cases, which is why traders should always read contract rules before taking a Position.