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US official: We expect a deal soon between Iran and Oman on Strait of Hormuz
Traffic Still Depressed
Traffic through the strait remained far below normal in early August, with Reuters saying vessel transits had fallen to 33 from Monday through Thursday, versus 50 in the prior week. That was still well under the prewar pace of roughly 130 to 140 ships a day.
Deal Appears Close
The strongest fresh timing clue came from a U.S. official quoted by Reuters, who said a deal was expected soon and that normal oil traffic could resume once it was announced. Reuters also reported on Aug. 8 that Iran said a deal was close, but not yet sufficient on its own to reopen the waterway.
Likely Timing
Taken together, the reporting points to a possible reopening in the near term, but not a confirmed month. The practical answer is that traffic could return to something closer to normal in late summer or early autumn only if the Iran-Oman understanding is finalized and enforced.
What To Watch
Even if an agreement is reached, shipping volumes may recover gradually rather than snap back instantly. Industry concerns, security risks, and any residual restrictions could keep traffic below historic norms for a while.