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Tilt·October 28, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31
Market expectations
Current prediction-market pricing assigns very low odds to traffic returning to normal by October 31. Contracts instead show a strong probability for the outcome that normal traffic will not return during 2026.[1]
What drives odds
The market is not a maritime forecast, but it reflects expectations about the combined effect of political uncertainty, security incidents, and the time needed for commercial operators to resume ordinary routing and scheduling.[1][2]
Possible outcome
The pricing suggests no dependable month has been established. If the political agreement holds and the security environment improves, December is the nearest plausible 2026 target; otherwise, normalization may slip into early 2027.[1][2]