Strait of Hormuz Predictions and Real-Time Odds

Current expectation

Market signal

How it is measured

The latest Polymarket tracker puts “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026” at roughly 82%, making it the clear leading outcome. November and December are each assigned only small probabilities in the displayed market pricing.[3][4]

These figures should be read as a snapshot of trader expectations, not as a formal shipping forecast.

Why the date is uncertain

The market’s resolution rules use IMF PortWatch’s seven-day moving average of Strait arrivals. A qualifying month requires the moving average to reach or exceed 60 transit calls, tying the result to a specific quantitative benchmark.[5]

That threshold is stricter than merely having ships pass through the waterway, so intermittent or limited traffic would not necessarily count as normalization.

What to watch

The market outcome can change rapidly if negotiations produce a security arrangement or if attacks intensify. Until traffic approaches the specified threshold consistently, a precise month remains difficult to establish.

Current pricing therefore supports a broad conclusion—normalization is more likely to be delayed beyond 2026—rather than a reliable prediction of a particular month.