Shipping traffic via Strait of Hormuz stays below 10-day average, data shows

Traffic Still Weak

The latest Reuters update says traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains below its 10-day average, confirming that the shipping lane is still not back to normal. Earlier Reuters dispatches in August showed only slight day-to-day improvement, but volumes were still far under prewar levels.

That pattern matters because the strait is a critical passage for global energy flows, so even modest changes in vessel counts can affect market confidence and freight routing.

Recovery Outlook

The clearest time frame in the reporting came from trade and shipping analysts cited in June, who said traffic could reach roughly 40% of prewar levels within about a month but would not fully normalize until well into 2027. Other market commentary later in the summer pushed expectations out further, with prediction-market odds implying normal traffic may not return for many months.

What to Watch

The main constraint is not just reopening the waterway but restoring confidence in safe passage, insurance coverage, and regular commercial routing. If the security situation stabilizes and ships resume using the main lane consistently, traffic could improve gradually; if disruptions continue, normalization could slip much further.