Best Platforms
Live Odds
Potential 2028 frontrunners rise to top of new primary poll
Latest primary polling
A Harvard/HarrisX poll conducted October 24–26 found Harris leading potential Democratic candidates with 34%, ahead of Gavin Newsom at 20%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 11%, and Pete Buttigieg at 10%. Vance led the Republican field with 40%, while Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio were tied at 21%.[11]
Why results differ
A separate New York Times/Siena survey produced a more cautious picture. Vance led Republican primary voters with 33%, followed by Marco Rubio at roughly 23–24%, while Harris led Democrats with only 12%, ahead of Newsom at 9% and Buttigieg at 7%; 45% of Democrats were undecided.[13][16]
Current winner odds
Prediction-market averages cited by Newsweek put Vance first in the overall 2028 winner market at an implied 18.7%, followed by Ocasio-Cortez at 11.8%, Newsom at 10.9%, Jon Ossoff at 9.6%, and Rubio at 9.5%.[15] These figures indicate an early advantage, not a conventional probability based on a settled general-election matchup.
What comes next
The most defensible conclusion is that Vance is the early Republican favorite and perhaps the leading individual contender overall, but no candidate is close to being a clear projected winner. Democratic uncertainty, undecided voters, the 2026 midterms, candidate decisions, economic conditions, and the eventual general-election matchup could all substantially reorder the field.