Hormuz tanker traffic unchanged after US-Iran deal

Uneven Movement

Argus described the route as still far below its pre-war baseline, with traffic measured in single digits or low double digits on recent days. That is consistent with a route that remains operational but heavily constrained.

The pattern suggests that even when traffic improves briefly, the gains are not durable enough to call it normal service.

Risk Still High

The main takeaway is that the market has not settled into a steady post-crisis pattern. Shippers are still acting as though the strait is a risk zone rather than a routine corridor.

That keeps volumes suppressed and delays any clean return to typical daily crossings.

Outlook

Until security conditions stabilize and carriers believe the environment is safe for ordinary operations, the route is unlikely to snap back in a single month. The current evidence points to a gradual, uncertain recovery instead.

Best Estimate

If a month must be inferred from the reporting and earlier market expectations, September had been the most commonly suggested target. But the newest reporting shows that date has not been reached in practice, so no confirmed month can be given yet.