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Argus Media·October 24, 2026
Hormuz restart consensus for LNG market slips into 2Q27
Current estimate
A survey of 19 LNG market participants puts the average expectation for a return to pre-war flows at early April 2027. Forecasts vary widely, from late December 2026 to September 2027, showing that the market lacks a firm reopening timetable.
Why forecasts changed
The change reflects a move away from the earlier practice of assuming that traffic would normalize the following month. Some traders now expect current reduced “dark” transits to continue indefinitely or fluctuate through 2027.
What happens next
Even after the waterway becomes safer, LNG exports may not immediately return to full capacity. Qatar’s Ras Laffan terminal could require one to two months to ramp up, while a shortage of available vessels could create an additional bottleneck.