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Live Odds
2028 Presidential Election Odds: Democrats are favored. JD Vance is the likeliest winner.
Party odds
Market snapshots put the Democratic party near 61% and the Republican party near 39%. These figures are trading-based implied probabilities, not conventional polling and not guarantees of the eventual result.[13][17]
Candidate odds
JD Vance leads individual-candidate markets at approximately 20%, while leading Democrats include Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, and Gavin Newsom at lower, spread-out levels.[18]
Why the gap
A party can lead the aggregate market even when no single nominee dominates. Multiple Democratic candidates collectively account for much of the party’s price, whereas Republican expectations are more concentrated around Vance.
What to watch
The market advantage could change sharply as candidates declare, primary voters receive more information, and the economy and presidential approval ratings develop. At this stage, it is more accurate to say Democrats are favored as a party than to predict a Democratic nominee or a certain winner.