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Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

25 outcomes
Total Volume
$548.59M
$47.99M / $500.60M
24h Volume
$7.72M
$3.07M / $4.66M
Liquidity
$70.78M
$3.27M / $67.51M
Turnover (24h)
0.50x
0.94x / 0.07x
Prediction Market Dominance Index
K+50K+40K+30K+20K+10EvenP+10P+20P+30P+40P+50
Kalshi

+8

Balanced
INDEX COMPONENTS
Kalshi
Polymarket
24h Volume (55%)
40%
60%
Liquidity (25%)
5%
95%
Turnover (20%)
93%
7%
Trends
Not enough data for 6h
Highlights
Both23
K only0
PM only2
Avg Spread5.0%
Most Active (24h)Judy Shelton nominated as Fed Chair by Trump$2.85M
Deepest MarketJerome Powell nominated as Fed Chair by Trump$5.37M
Best Spread44.2¢
Kevin Warsh nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
Buy on K @ 50.0¢ → Sell on PM @ 94.2¢
Markets Agree (<2% spread)18/23
Top Spreads
Kevin Warsh nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
PM↑44.2%
Rick Rieder nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
K↑24.6%
Kevin Hassett nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
K↑11.8%
AI Market Analysis3d ago
Key InsightTreat this as a cross-platform mispricing regime—hedged arb (short Warsh PM vs long on Kalshi, and inverse for Rieder/Waller/Hassett) dominates directional edge.
SummaryMarket heavily concentrated on Warsh, with Kalshi pricing meaningfully more uncertainty than Polymarket.
Price MovementNo historical prices provided, but current pricing shows extreme dispersion (Warsh 50% Kalshi vs 94.2% Polymarket; Rieder 25% vs 0.4%).
Volume24h volume $7.72M (up from $6.04M) on slightly lower liquidity (~$70.8B), suggesting active repricing rather than thin trading.
PlatformsMajor dislocation: Warsh +44.2pp higher on Polymarket and Rieder/Waller/Hassett far higher on Kalshi (spreads 11–25pp) → clear arb signals.
Outcome
K / PM / Spread
Spread
K Vol 24h
PM Vol 24h
Judy Shelton nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
$0.0300$0.0405$0.0105
1.1%$741.4K$2.11M
Kevin Warsh nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
$0.5000$0.9420$0.4420
44.2%$238.5K$323.7K
Kevin Hassett nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
$0.1200$0.0025$0.1175
11.8%$158.7K$581.1K
Rick Rieder nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
$0.2500$0.0035$0.2465
24.6%$302.1K$987.7K
Christopher Waller nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
$0.1200$0.0035$0.1165
11.6%$112.5K$291.5K
Jerome Powell nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
$0.0100$0.0005$0.0095
0.9%$7.3K$492
Michelle Bowman nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
$0.0200$0.0030$0.0170
1.7%$542.0K$71.3K
Bill Pulte nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
$0.0100$0.0005$0.0095
0.9%$4.3K$9.0K
Donald Trump nominates himself as Fed Chair
$0.0100$0.0005$0.0095
0.9%$16.4K$3.5K
Stephen Miran nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
$0.0100$0.0025$0.0075
0.8%$220.4K$119.9K
Janet Yellen nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
$0.0100$0.0005$0.0095
0.9%$3$7.0K
Arthur Laffer nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
$0.0100$0.0005$0.0095
0.9%$999$1.1K
Barron Trump nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
-$0.0005-
--$8.1K
Scott Bessent nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
$0.0400$0.0005$0.0395
4.0%$710.7K$2.1K
No one nominated by Trump before 2027
-$0.0045-
--$104.7K
David Zervos nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
$0.0100$0.0005$0.0095
0.9%$1.4K$1.1K
Ron Paul nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
$0.0100$0.0005$0.0095
0.9%$1.9K$3.0K
Philip Jefferson nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
$0.0100$0.0005$0.0095
0.9%$3$7.0K
Larry Kudlow nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
$0.0100$0.0005$0.0095
0.9%$392$6.2K
David Malpass nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
$0.0100$0.0005$0.0095
0.9%$703$3.6K
Larry Lindsey nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
$0.0100$0.0005$0.0095
0.9%$3$6.2K
Marc Sumerlin nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
$0.0100$0.0005$0.0095
0.9%$3$1.4K
Howard Lutnick nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
$0.0100$0.0005$0.0095
0.9%$239$1.3K
Lorie K. Logan nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
$0.0100$0.0005$0.0095
0.9%$4.7K$2.4K
James Bullard nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
$0.0100$0.0005$0.0095
0.9%$1.9K$3.0K
Sort by:
Kevin Warsh nominated as Fed Chair by Trump+44.2¢
K50¢
PM94¢
K 24h$238.5K
PM 24h$323.7K
Rick Rieder nominated as Fed Chair by Trump+24.6¢
K25¢
PM0¢
K 24h$302.1K
PM 24h$987.7K
Kevin Hassett nominated as Fed Chair by Trump+11.8¢
K12¢
PM0¢
K 24h$158.7K
PM 24h$581.1K
Christopher Waller nominated as Fed Chair by Trump+11.6¢
K12¢
PM0¢
K 24h$112.5K
PM 24h$291.5K
Scott Bessent nominated as Fed Chair by Trump+4.0¢
K4¢
PM0¢
K 24h$710.7K
PM 24h$2.1K
Michelle Bowman nominated as Fed Chair by Trump+1.7¢
K2¢
PM0¢
K 24h$542.0K
PM 24h$71.3K
Judy Shelton nominated as Fed Chair by Trump+1.1¢
K3¢
PM4¢
K 24h$741.4K
PM 24h$2.11M
Jerome Powell nominated as Fed Chair by Trump+0.9¢
K1¢
PM0¢
K 24h$7.3K
PM 24h$492
Bill Pulte nominated as Fed Chair by Trump+0.9¢
K1¢
PM0¢
K 24h$4.3K
PM 24h$9.0K
Donald Trump nominates himself as Fed Chair+0.9¢
K1¢
PM0¢
K 24h$16.4K
PM 24h$3.5K
Janet Yellen nominated as Fed Chair by Trump+0.9¢
K1¢
PM0¢
K 24h$3
PM 24h$7.0K
Arthur Laffer nominated as Fed Chair by Trump+0.9¢
K1¢
PM0¢
K 24h$999
PM 24h$1.1K
David Zervos nominated as Fed Chair by Trump+0.9¢
K1¢
PM0¢
K 24h$1.4K
PM 24h$1.1K
Ron Paul nominated as Fed Chair by Trump+0.9¢
K1¢
PM0¢
K 24h$1.9K
PM 24h$3.0K
Philip Jefferson nominated as Fed Chair by Trump+0.9¢
K1¢
PM0¢
K 24h$3
PM 24h$7.0K
Larry Kudlow nominated as Fed Chair by Trump+0.9¢
K1¢
PM0¢
K 24h$392
PM 24h$6.2K
David Malpass nominated as Fed Chair by Trump+0.9¢
K1¢
PM0¢
K 24h$703
PM 24h$3.6K
Larry Lindsey nominated as Fed Chair by Trump+0.9¢
K1¢
PM0¢
K 24h$3
PM 24h$6.2K
Marc Sumerlin nominated as Fed Chair by Trump+0.9¢
K1¢
PM0¢
K 24h$3
PM 24h$1.4K
Howard Lutnick nominated as Fed Chair by Trump+0.9¢
K1¢
PM0¢
K 24h$239
PM 24h$1.3K
Lorie K. Logan nominated as Fed Chair by Trump+0.9¢
K1¢
PM0¢
K 24h$4.7K
PM 24h$2.4K
James Bullard nominated as Fed Chair by Trump+0.9¢
K1¢
PM0¢
K 24h$1.9K
PM 24h$3.0K
Stephen Miran nominated as Fed Chair by Trump+0.8¢
K1¢
PM0¢
K 24h$220.4K
PM 24h$119.9K
Barron Trump nominated as Fed Chair by Trump
K-
PM0¢
K 24h-
PM 24h$8.1K
No one nominated by Trump before 2027
K-
PM0¢
K 24h-
PM 24h$104.7K