This market has resolved on Aug 7, 2026. Prices below are final settlements, not live odds.
PoliticsResolved
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Plus500
Kalshi
Polymarket
Foregate
Kevin Warsh50%Rick Rieder25%Christopher Waller12%Kevin Hassett12%
$48.0M Vol.Oct 15, 2026
Plus500
Kalshi
Polymarket
Foregate
$47,986,584 Vol.Oct 16, 2026
Kevin Warsh$5,981,661 Vol.
50%
Resolved Yes
Rick Rieder$5,267,550 Vol.
25%
Resolved No
Christopher Waller$5,102,531 Vol.
12%
Resolved No
Kevin Hassett$8,134,044 Vol.
12%
Resolved No
Scott Bessent$4,247,571 Vol.
4%
Resolved No
Judy Shelton$9,093,636 Vol.
3%
Resolved No
Michelle Bowman$5,640,451 Vol.
2%
Resolved No
James Bullard$95,877 Vol.
1%
Resolved No
Donald Trump (Himself)$260,832 Vol.
1%
Resolved No
Ron Paul$16,723 Vol.
1%
Resolved No
Janet Yellen$14,269 Vol.
1%
Resolved No
Philip Jefferson$48,515 Vol.
1%
Resolved No
Larry Kudlow$75,863 Vol.
1%
Resolved No
Larry Lindsey$42,632 Vol.
1%
Resolved No
Lorie Logan$38,103 Vol.
1%
Resolved No
Stephen Miran$2,596,445 Vol.
1%
Resolved No
David Zervos$441,408 Vol.
1%
Resolved No
Jerome Powell$219,198 Vol.
1%
Resolved No
Arthur Laffer$57,546 Vol.
1%
Resolved No
Marc Sumerlin$89,212 Vol.
1%
Resolved No
David Malpass$227,588 Vol.
1%
Resolved No
Bill Pulte$160,981 Vol.
1%
Resolved No
Howard Lutnick$133,948 Vol.
1%
Resolved No
The Fed chair sets U.S. monetary policy for the coming years.
The nominee’s stance on interest rates, inflation targeting, bank regulation, and Fed independence will shape borrowing costs, market volatility, and economic growth expectations.
Donald Trump names the nominee. Shortlisted figures include Kevin Warsh, Jerome Powell, Judy Shelton, Kevin Hassett, Larry Kudlow, Ron Paul and other contenders from the outcome slate.
The Senate Banking Committee and full Senate must confirm the pick, while Fed governors, White House personnel, and market actors influence viability.
Public signals from the White House and Trump's advisers move markets and bettors.
Vetting notes, candidate interviews, GOP senator endorsements, press leaks, and immediate market reactions are the main causal levers shifting nomination odds.
Watch for announced meetings and any confirmed interviews between Trump and prospective nominees.
Also track White House leaks, a published shortlist, Senate Banking Committee hearing dates, key GOP senator endorsements, and market moves after announcements.