What's at stake

The Fed chair sets U.S. monetary policy for the coming years.

The nominee’s stance on interest rates, inflation targeting, bank regulation, and Fed independence will shape borrowing costs, market volatility, and economic growth expectations.

Who's in play

Donald Trump names the nominee. Shortlisted figures include Kevin Warsh, Jerome Powell, Judy Shelton, Kevin Hassett, Larry Kudlow, Ron Paul and other contenders from the outcome slate.

The Senate Banking Committee and full Senate must confirm the pick, while Fed governors, White House personnel, and market actors influence viability.

What drives it

Public signals from the White House and Trump's advisers move markets and bettors.

Vetting notes, candidate interviews, GOP senator endorsements, press leaks, and immediate market reactions are the main causal levers shifting nomination odds.

What to watch

Watch for announced meetings and any confirmed interviews between Trump and prospective nominees.

Also track White House leaks, a published shortlist, Senate Banking Committee hearing dates, key GOP senator endorsements, and market moves after announcements.