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Home›Geopolitics›Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?
Geopolitics
Who will be the next Secretary-General of the UN?
Plus500
Kalshi
Polymarket
Foregate
Rebeca Grynspan54%Rafael Grossi17%Macky Sall13%Olara Otunnu10%
$103.9K Vol.Oct 16, 2026
Plus500
Kalshi
Polymarket
Foregate
Best Spread: Kalshi 16¢
$103,882 Vol.Oct 16, 2026
Rebeca Grynspan$29,347 Vol.
54%
Buy Yes54¢Buy No46¢
Rafael Grossi$33,455 Vol.
17%
Buy Yes17¢Buy No83¢
Macky Sall$34 Vol.
13%
Buy Yes13¢Buy No87¢
Olara Otunnu$239 Vol.
10%
Buy Yes10¢Buy No90¢
Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett$1,306 Vol.
9%
Buy Yes9¢Buy No91¢
Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés$13,399 Vol.
5%
Buy Yes5¢Buy No95¢
Mia Mottley$3,132 Vol.
4%
Buy Yes4¢Buy No96¢
Michelle Bachelet$10,351 Vol.
3%
Buy Yes3¢Buy No97¢
Amina J. Mohammed$4,892 Vol.
3%
Buy Yes3¢Buy No97¢
Sigrid Kaag$2,366 Vol.
3%
Buy Yes3¢Buy No97¢
Lana Nusseibeh$3,130 Vol.
3%
Buy Yes3¢Buy No97¢
Nickolay Mladenov$789 Vol.
3%
Buy Yes3¢Buy No97¢
Gianni Infantino$464 Vol.
2%
Buy Yes2¢Buy No98¢
Alicia Bárcena$967 Vol.
1%
Buy Yes1¢Buy No99¢
Ivonne A-Baki$9 Vol.
1%
Buy Yes1¢Buy No99¢

The next UN Secretary‑General will set the UN's priorities and diplomatic tone for the next five‑year term.

Decisions on peacekeeping mandates, climate and development agendas, and relations with major powers affect billions and shape how member states cooperate or clash.

David Choquehuanca, Rebeca Grynspan, Bruno Donat, and Jacinda Ardern headline the list of prominent candidates.

Also running or discussed are Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés, Vuk Jeremić, Mia Mottley, Michelle Bachelet, Colombe Cahen‑Salvador, Rafael Grossi, Alicia Bárcena, Kristalina Georgieva, Amina Mohammed, and Achim Steiner.

Security Council straw polls, a P5 veto, and the informal consensus process determine which candidate reaches a General Assembly endorsement.

Member states' priorities on UN reform, climate, peace operations, regional balance, and a candidate's multilateral track record shift support quickly.

Watch for formal Security Council straw-poll rounds and any explicit P5 statements of support or opposition in the months before the vote.

Also track candidate travel, endorsements from key regional blocs, high‑profile speeches, UN General Assembly scheduling, and any surprise withdrawals or late compromises.