What's at stake

Whether each named leader will leave the office they held on January 1, 2026, at any time during 2026.

Market resolution requires loss of that office — by electoral defeat, resignation, removal, death, or term expiry — before January 1, 2027.

Who's in play

Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Narendra Modi, Emmanuel Macron, Giorgia Meloni, Gustavo Petro, Nayib Bukele, Claudia Sheinbaum, and other listed incumbents.

The full slate includes 36 heads of state or government from democracies, authoritarians, and hybrid regimes whose tenure depends on elections, party politics, legal rulings, or force.

What drives it

Elections and scheduled term expirations are the main brakes and accelerators.

Polls, coalition math, court rulings, impeachment processes, health crises, protests, elite defections, and military or foreign interventions can all cause a leader to leave earlier than scheduled.

What to watch

Track national election calendars, scheduled inaugurations, and announced resignation dates across the listed countries.

Monitor key signals: court decisions on term limits, parliamentary confidence votes, official health bulletins, campaign launches, major protests, military movements, and public statements from ruling parties and opposition leaders throughout 2026.