Markets Prediction
Get Promotion Codes
Jump toBest PlatformsLive Odds

Yes/No Shares

Yes/No shares are the two complementary tokens minted for each binary prediction market, where YES shares pay $1.00 if the event resolves affirmatively and NO shares pay $1.00 if it does not. Together, one YES share and one NO share always settle for a combined total of $1.00.

Updated June 25, 2026Market Fundamentals
TL;DR
YES shares profit if the event happens; NO shares profit if it does not -- together they are always worth exactly $1.

Key Points

✓Every binary market creates exactly two share types: YES and NO, representing the two possible outcomes.
✓A YES share priced at $0.60 and its corresponding NO share are implicitly priced at $0.40, summing to $1.00.
✓Buying YES is equivalent to going long on the event occurring; buying NO is equivalent to going short.
✓Traders can hold shares until settlement or sell them on the order book to lock in gains or cut losses early.
✓Platforms may allow short-selling by selling shares you do not own, effectively creating a position on the opposite outcome.

How YES and NO Shares Are Created

When a trader places a matched trade on a Binary Market, the platform mints one YES share and one NO share simultaneously from the combined collateral of both counterparties. The YES buyer pays the Contract Price, and the NO buyer pays $1.00 minus that price. Upon Market Resolution, the winning share redeems for $1.00 and the losing share redeems for $0.00. Because the two shares always pay out a combined dollar, the Price as Probability relationship holds perfectly in frictionless markets. In practice, Trading Fees cause YES and NO prices to sum to slightly less than $1.00 on some platforms. The Order Book shows live bids and asks for both share types, giving traders visibility into current Implied Probability for each outcome.

Trading Strategies with YES and NO Shares

Traders buy YES shares when they believe the market underestimates the probability of an event occurring, and buy NO shares when they believe it is overestimated. This is the foundation of Value Betting in prediction markets. A trader seeking to hedge an existing exposure -- for example, a business worried about a regulatory decision -- can buy NO shares as insurance. The ability to trade both sides also enables Arbitrage: if the same event is listed on two platforms at different prices, a trader can buy YES on one and NO on the other to lock in a risk-free profit. Position sizing is governed by frameworks like the Kelly Criterion, which balances expected gain against ruin risk. Open Interest in YES and NO shares reflects the total market exposure outstanding.

Related Terms

Binary Market
A binary market is a prediction market in which exactly two mutually exclusive outcomes are possible, typically labeled YES and NO, with one contract paying $1.00 and the other paying $0.00 at resolution. It is the most common market structure on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
Event Contract
An event contract is a financial derivative whose value is determined by the outcome of a specified real-world event, paying a fixed amount if the defined outcome occurs and nothing if it does not. Event contracts are the core tradable instrument on prediction market platforms.
Implied Probability
Implied probability is the likelihood of an event occurring as expressed by the current market price of a prediction market contract. On binary markets, a contract priced at 65 cents implies a 65% chance the event resolves YES.
Contract Price
The contract price is the current market price of a single prediction market share, expressed as a value between $0.00 and $1.00, which simultaneously represents the cost to enter the position and the crowd's probability estimate for that outcome.
Arbitrage
Arbitrage in prediction markets is the practice of exploiting price discrepancies for the same event across different platforms or outcomes to lock in a guaranteed profit regardless of how the event resolves.
More in Market Fundamentals
← Previous
Scalar Market

Find the best odds on every market

Compare live prices across Kalshi, Polymarket, and more — spot arbitrage and trade the sharpest line on any event.

Compare Markets