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Last Price

The last price is the price at which the most recent trade was executed for a given event contract. It serves as a simple, backward-looking reference point for where the market has been, though it may not reflect the current best available price.

Updated June 25, 2026Trading & Pricing
TL;DR
Last price shows where the most recent deal was struck. It is a historical data point, not a live quote, and can be stale in quiet markets.

Key Points

✓Last price records the exact price of the most recently matched trade on the order book.
✓It differs from the current bid, ask, and midpoint, which reflect live resting orders rather than completed transactions.
✓In liquid markets, last price stays close to the current midpoint and updates frequently.
✓In illiquid markets, last price can be significantly stale, showing a price from minutes or hours ago.
✓Many prediction market UIs display last price prominently alongside the live bid-ask spread for context.

Last Price as a Trading Reference

Every time a buyer and seller agree on a price and a trade executes through the Matching Engine, that transaction price becomes the new last price for the contract. On active markets like major election outcomes on Kalshi or Polymarket, the last price updates many times per minute and closely tracks the Midpoint Price of the live Order Book. Traders use last price to quickly gauge where recent activity occurred and to spot short-term Momentum Trading signals. Chart displays on prediction market platforms almost always plot last-price history over time, giving a visual record of how the crowd's probability estimate has shifted.

When Last Price Can Mislead

Last price is a lagging indicator by definition. In low-Trading Volume markets, the last trade may have occurred hours or even days before the current moment, making the displayed last price an unreliable estimate of fair value. The Bid-Ask Spread can widen substantially without changing the last price at all. Traders relying solely on last price in thin markets risk misreading the true Market Price and placing orders at stale references. Always cross-check last price against the live bid and ask before executing. For Mark-to-Market valuation of an open Position, platforms typically use the Midpoint Price or a settlement price rather than last price alone to avoid distortion from isolated trades.

Related Terms

Market Price
The market price of an event contract is the current prevailing price at which the contract is being quoted or traded, typically represented as the midpoint between the best bid and best ask on the order book. It reflects the crowd's real-time consensus probability for the event.
Midpoint Price
The midpoint price is the arithmetic average of the best bid and best ask prices on an event contract, calculated as (best bid + best ask) / 2. It is widely used as a neutral, fee-adjusted estimate of a contract's fair value.
Order Book
An order book is the real-time electronic ledger that lists all outstanding buy (bid) and sell (ask) orders for an event contract, organized by price level. It is the central mechanism through which prediction market exchanges match buyers and sellers.
Trading Volume
Trading volume is the total number of event contracts (or total dollar value of contracts) that change hands during a specified period, typically measured over 24 hours. It is a primary indicator of market activity and liquidity for a prediction market contract.
Bid-Ask Spread
The bid-ask spread is the gap between the highest price a buyer is willing to pay (the bid) and the lowest price a seller is willing to accept (the ask) for an event contract. This gap represents an implicit transaction cost every trader pays when entering or exiting a position.

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