What's at stake

Control of the Welsh government hinges on which party wins the most seats in the 2026 Senedd election.

The winner will set priorities for health, education, transport and Welsh law, and will lead coalition talks and the Senedd's legislative agenda for the next term.

Who's in play

Labour, Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are the primary contenders for the largest bloc of Senedd seats.

The Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, regional list candidates and local independents can swing close races and influence coalition math in the 60-seat Senedd.

What drives it

Shifts in public opinion on health services, education, housing and the Welsh language change vote shares between parties.

Campaign messaging, tactical voting patterns under the mixed-member system, turnout differences across regions, and UK-level political events all alter seat projections.

What to watch

The last fortnight before the vote will show momentum in constituency polls, national trackers, and local bypolls that signal tightening or drift.

Look for manifesto launches, TV debates, postal-vote returns, marginal constituency results on count night, and regional list outcomes that determine final seat totals.