What's at stake

A single regular-season MLB game settles the moneyline, several run-line spreads, and multiple total-run over/unders listed on the market.

Payouts hinge on the final score after regulation and extra innings; run-line options require specific margins, while totals depend on combined runs scored.

Who's in play

Starting pitchers, their early pitch counts, and the bullpen depth shape win probability and margin outcomes.

Lineups, pinch-hitting decisions, defensive alignments, and managers' late-game choices also determine whether the game clears run-line margins or hits an over/under.

What drives it

Pitching quality, pitch types, and handedness matchups directly affect run production and variance.

Park factors, wind, weather, recent team offense trends, injuries, and in-game umpire strike zones shift the likelihood of totals and cover margins.

What to watch

Probable starting pitchers and official lineups are released about an hour before first pitch; those names reset the market more than anything else.

Monitor weather and wind, late scratches, bullpen usage, and the first three innings' scoring to update expectations for totals and run-line covers.