What's at stake

Final score and margin decide whether Cincinnati or the Chicago Cubs wins and which moneyline contract settles.

Several linked markets resolve: two -1.5 run-line options and multiple totals from 4.5 up to 8.5. Each early run or late rally can flip spread and over/under outcomes.

Who's in play

Starting pitchers and bullpens determine how many innings of clean baseball each side gets.

Lineups, power hitters, bench pinch-hitters, and managers’ bullpen usage and pinch decisions also shape which sides of the moneyline, run line, and totals prevail.

What drives it

Pitching matchups, handedness, and pitch repertoires are the main drivers of run expectancy and market movement.

Weather, ballpark characteristics, the umpire’s strike zone, recent injuries, and bullpen depth further shift probabilities both before first pitch and in-play.

What to watch

Announced starters and official lineups — usually posted a few hours before first pitch — are the primary pregame signals for pricing these markets.

Also monitor the weather forecast, late scratches, bullpen availability, first-inning scoring, and early pitch counts; those signals often decide over/under and -1.5 outcomes.