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Portugal Presidential Election

4 outcomes
Total Volume
$19.43M
- / $19.43M
24h Volume
$1.38M
- / $1.38M
Liquidity
$4.61M
- / $4.61M
Turnover (24h)
0.15x
- / 0.30x
Prediction Market Dominance Index
K+50K+40K+30K+20K+10EvenP+10P+20P+30P+40P+50
Kalshi

+50

Kalshi Heavy
INDEX COMPONENTS
Kalshi
Polymarket
24h Volume (55%)
0%
100%
Liquidity (25%)
0%
100%
Turnover (20%)
0%
100%
Trends
Not enough data for 6h
Highlights
Both0
K only0
PM only4
Avg Spread0.0%
Most Active (24h)António José Seguro wins the 2026 Portugal presidential election$1.30M
Deepest MarketCatarina Martins wins the 2026 Portugal presidential election$1.56M
AI Market Analysis15d ago
Key InsightTreat this as likely mis-specified or resolution-risky: massive Ventura flow at 0.1% vs Seguro 99.9% is the only tradable anomaly to investigate.
SummaryPolymarket is pricing a near-certain win for António José Seguro (99.9%) with all other named outcomes at ~0.1%.
Price MovementStable/no historical prints provided; current distribution is extremely concentrated (99.9% vs 0.1% others).
Volume24h volume is very high at $2.88M (up from $1.46M) concentrated in Seguro ($1.30M) and Ventura ($1.39M), suggesting heavy positioning despite tiny quoted odds for Ventura.
PlatformsNo actionable cross-platform read: Kalshi prices are N/A despite an event-level 'Kalshi heavy' flag.
Outcome
K / PM / Spread
Spread
K Vol 24h
PM Vol 24h
António José Seguro wins the 2026 Portugal presidential election
-$0.9995-
--$1.30M
João Cotrim Figueiredo wins the 2026 Portugal presidential election
-$0.0005-
--$68.9K
Rui Moreira wins the 2026 Portugal presidential election
-$0.0005-
--$10.0K
Catarina Martins wins the 2026 Portugal presidential election
-$0.0005-
--$1.0K
Sort by:
António José Seguro wins the 2026 Portugal presidential election
K-
PM100¢
K 24h-
PM 24h$1.30M
João Cotrim Figueiredo wins the 2026 Portugal presidential election
K-
PM
K 24h-
PM 24h$68.9K
Rui Moreira wins the 2026 Portugal presidential election
K-
PM
K 24h-
PM 24h$10.0K
Catarina Martins wins the 2026 Portugal presidential election
K-
PM
K 24h-
PM 24h$1.0K